BY: Abdullateef Sebiotimo
On 25 September 2026, former Kogi West senator Dino Melaye published a widely shared post on X presenting what he described as the “History of Fuel Price” in Nigeria. The now viral list, as at the time of writing this report has garnered 159K views, 579 retweets, 1.4K likes and 232 bookmarks.
The list began with 6 kobo under General Yakubu Gowon in 1970 and ended with a claimed ₦1,460 per litre under President Bola Tinubu in 2026, followed by a provocative question mark for 2027. The post captured public attention because petrol prices remain one of the most politically sensitive issues in Nigeria. For millions of Nigerians, the cost of a litre of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) directly affects transport fares, food prices, the cost of generating electricity with generators, and overall household budgets.
While the timeline posted by the former Kogi senator correctly illustrates the long-term upward trajectory of fuel prices, a detailed examination shows that it mixes accurate historical markers with incomplete sequences, incorrect years, and an inflated current figure. To understand the full picture, FactCheckAfrica decided to place each major change in its political, chronological and economic context.
The Kobo Era Marked by Cheap Fuel to First Policy Shifts
In the early 1970s, Nigeria’s petrol was priced in kobo. Melaye’s opening figures of 6 kobo in 1970 and 8 kobo in 1973 under Gowon align closely with historical records. The first significant official increase came in 1973, when the price moved from about 6 kobo to 8.45 kobo. At the time, Nigeria was entering its oil boom years. Oil revenues were rising rapidly after the 1973 global oil shock, and successive governments treated cheap fuel as both a political necessity and a way to redistribute oil wealth.
Under General Olusegun Obasanjo’s military administration, the price rose to approximately 15.3 kobo in October 1978. Shehu Shagari’s civilian government later adjusted it to 20 kobo in 1982. These early increases were modest by later standards, yet they already sparked public discontent. Fuel had become a highly visible symbol of government performance.
The structural adjustment period under General Ibrahim Babangida brought more frequent changes. Melaye lists 39 kobo in 1986, 42 kobo in 1988, 68 kobo in 1990 and 70 kobo in 1991. Official records confirm a rise from 20 kobo to 39.5 kobo in 1986, then to 42 kobo, and later to 60–70 kobo by 1991. These adjustments formed part of broader economic reforms aimed at reducing subsidies and aligning domestic prices more closely with international costs. They also coincided with the beginning of more organised labour resistance to fuel price increases.
The Turbulent 1990s and the Arrival of the Naira Price
The short-lived Interim National Government of Ernest Shonekan raised the price sharply to ₦5 in November 1993 which amounts to an increase of more than 600 per cent from the previous 70 kobo. General Sani Abacha reversed it to ₦3.25 before raising it again to ₦15 in 1994 and then partially rolling it back to ₦11. Melaye records these movements accurately. Abdulsalami Abubakar later moved the price to ₦25 in late 1998 before reducing it to ₦20 in January 1999, the level at which the Fourth Republic began.
These rapid changes in the 1990s reflected the political instability of the period and the growing fiscal burden of maintaining artificially low fuel prices while Nigeria continued to import most of its refined petroleum products.
Frequent Adjustments and Growing Protests in the Fourth Republic
When Olusegun Obasanjo returned as civilian president in 1999, petrol sold for about ₦20 per litre. Over the next eight years his government implemented several increases, often in the face of strong opposition from the Nigeria Labour Congress. The price moved through ₦22, ₦26, ₦40–₦42, ₦50 and ₦65, ending at ₦75 in May 2007. Melaye lists several of these figures but presents them out of chronological order, creating the impression of a simpler progression than actually occurred.
Umaru Musa Yar’Adua reversed the final Obasanjo hike and restored the price to ₦65, one of the few sustained reductions in the democratic era. Goodluck Jonathan’s administration produced one of the most dramatic episodes. On 1 January 2012 the government announced the removal of the petrol subsidy, sending the official price from ₦65 to ₦141 overnight. The decision triggered the nationwide #OccupyNigeria protests. Within weeks the government partially reversed the increase, settling at ₦97. By the time Jonathan left office in 2015 the price had been lowered further to around ₦87. Melaye’s timeline places the ₦141 figure in 2010 and the subsequent reductions in the wrong years, distorting the sequence of events.
Under Muhammadu Buhari the price was adjusted to approximately ₦145 in May 2016. Although official pump prices remained relatively stable for several years, the underlying cost of subsidy payments grew as the naira weakened and the volume of imported petrol increased. By the final years of the Buhari administration, the gap between the regulated pump price and the actual landing cost of imported fuel had become fiscally unsustainable. Average prices had already begun drifting higher before the formal end of the subsidy regime.
The Tinubu Era and the End of the Subsidy
President Bola Tinubu’s inauguration speech on 29 May 2023 contained the now-famous declaration that “fuel subsidy is gone.” Within days the pump price rose from the previous range of roughly ₦185–₦195 to between ₦488 and ₦557. After the Central Bank floated the naira, the price climbed further to around ₦617. Melaye’s figures of ₦550 and ₦617 for 2023 accurately reflect this period of rapid adjustment.
The claim that petrol now sells for ₦1,460 in 2026 is less precise. By late September 2026, National Bureau of Statistics data and market surveys showed national average retail prices and major-station rates generally falling between ₦1,200 and ₦1,400 per litre. NNPC stations were reporting approximately ₦1,385 in Lagos and ₦1,430 in Abuja. Some independent outlets, particularly after recent reductions in Dangote Refinery’s gantry price, offered lower rates closer to ₦1,200–₦1,325. While prices above ₦1,450 have been recorded in certain locations, ₦1,460 does not represent the prevailing national average.
Why the Numbers Matter
For decades successive governments used the subsidy to shield citizens from the full cost of imported refined products. The policy became increasingly expensive as domestic refining capacity collapsed and the population and vehicle fleet grew. By the early 2020s the annual cost of the petrol subsidy ran into trillions of naira, crowding out what could have been spent on health, education and infrastructure.
The removal of the subsidy in 2023 was therefore both an economic and a political decision. It immediately raised the cost of transportation and contributed to higher food prices and overall inflation. At the same time, government officials argued that the savings would free resources for more productive investment and that the eventual growth of domestic refining, particularly the Dangote Refinery, would create a more competitive market.
Melaye’s post forms part of a broader political conversation ahead of the 2027 elections. By presenting a continuous upward line ending in a high 2026 figure and an open question for the following year, the timeline emphasises discontinuity and hardship under the current administration. A fuller historical record shows that almost every government since the 1970s has raised petrol prices, often under fiscal pressure, and that partial reversals have been common when public resistance proved too strong.
However, the specific list contains chronological errors, incomplete sequences and an overstated current price. When read against official records and contemporary market data, the post is best understood as a politically charged summary rather than a precise historical document.
For citizens trying to make sense of one of the most consequential economic policies of the past three years, the fuller record remains essential. Petrol prices have risen under military and civilian governments alike. The scale and speed of the post-2023 increase are unprecedented in recent memory, but they did not occur in isolation from five decades of earlier decisions. Understanding both the accurate numbers and the political choices behind them is necessary for any serious debate about what comes next.
